Posted by Unbelievable Geoff on July 14, 2024, 12:33:22, in reply to "The Nasty Board."
Nik, I am too old to scroll to your net migration post way down below ( https://members3.boardhost.com/marionsboard/thread/1720619269.html ) and I want to show how stats fool the best of us at least some of the time, most of us for most of the time, and all of us when it suits us.
TL/DR - both Labour and the Conservatives are as bad (or good - you choose) as each other when it comes to immigration. What Labour gave a rocket launch to in 1997 the Conservatives polished before applying a mega booster in 2021. Labour 2024 will boldly navigate to where no man or Assistant Ball Retriever has gone before. Why would they not? They started it.
The purpose of your post was to emphatically conclude that the Conservatives allow more immigrants into the UK than Labour. But there are a few problems with your data and approach, some of which are:
1. The data you used changes calculation method from June 2012 so should not be compared as is. Pre June 2012 data uses the IPS method whilst the Experimental method is used formally thereafter. When corrected the gap in your monthly average closes.
2. You have not factored in that Labour had a standing start and that it took them a few years to mulitply the numbers they inherited. The intent to increase immigration was there from the start so an unbiased comparison would account for that and backfill the early results with figures from the end of their tenure. That then gets both close enough for them not worth time debating.
3. Net migration figures. Any method that can give the same result whether zero or 55,000,000 people leave the UK just so long as immigration is the same number greater than each speaks for itself as not being worth celebrating. The real story is buried within once you strip away a few things and map more detail into it. Only then can you begin to form a view worth testing in public.
When it comes to migration both Labour and the Conservatives, in action, have been the same. After 14 years to think and talk about it I see no sign that Labour will not continue the trend.