I have looked at the numbers and can't square the circle either. However the deaths in the UK for flu are annualised. This could hit over a 4 week period. The way I look at it is if you have 100 critical care beds and your seasonal flu modelling says it going to have to deal with 1000 cases, it's all ok as long as it hits over a long period and the modelling suggests you're never going to be a more than 95% capacity. If so then it's not news. However if the 1000 people turn up in the same 4 weeks, then you are stuffed and the knock on effect will sadly be deaths.