Good question to which I'm not sure I can hazard a reasonable answer. My unreasonable answer is 1000. But I think it will depend how quickly it happens. If it's a matter of weeks from now the figure will be lower than if it takes months. So 1000 dead before were the other side of Easter will look very bad to a lot of people. 1000 dead by August, well, not so much.
And obviously I meant 17/18 in my previous posting...