That 406 figure could be way off the mark. How do people get tested? Who does the testing? If you phone 111 the first two questions are, have you recently been abroad, have you been in contact with someone with the virus. If you haven’t been abroad, or don’t know if you have been in contact with a carrier, ( which you wouldn’t necessarily know) then you don’t get tested. So if you go to a pub or football for example and unknowingly come into contact and catch the virus you won’t get tested.