Bernie would have won in 2016, this year would be closer.
Trump has had three big boosts.
One he didn’t destroy the country (yet) so the “moderate Republicans” who wavered in 2016 will be more comfortable now (though most got in line back then anyway).
Two Impeachment. Yes he goes down in history as only the third president to be impeached and he was guilty as sin (so the house impeaching was the morally right thing to do) but the Senate was never going to vote to remove him from office and now he gets to bang on about “fake impeachment” and that it means he’s “innocent”. When Pelosi was sitting on the articles of impeachment I thought it was a pro political play Id never expected from her. But then she delivered them and he gets away with it all.
Three is weirdly Coronavirus. He’s handling it dreadfully but like Bush and Iraq in 2004 there will be a big “don’t change the captain during a crisis” movement and Teflon Don will ride it out.
He’s had big approval boosts from impeachment and the virus. That makes me lean more towards the idea that he’s winning no matter who he’s against.
It’s still a coin flip though. While I lean more towards him winning again there’s a chance that some people who flipped in 2016 flip back (considering he hasn’t made America great in the States that got him over the line in 2016) and some who are threatening to vote third party bite the bullet at the last minute.