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Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
Posted by Jim in Iowa on 1/28/2019, 5:12 pm
Wednesday...wind chill warning continues entire day as high temps stay well below zero. Record min Max's will be obliterated for the dbq and mli sites, with areas generally along and north of i80 not warming above 10 to 15 below. Some deep snow pockets of even colder highs in the upper teens below zero possible, as secondary elongated lobe of -24 to -27c 850 mb mb cold pool flows in overhead. As 10 to 20 knots winds decrease to around 10 kts by mid afternoon, afternoon wind chills will still range from 30 to 40 below acrs most of the County Warning Area because of the brutal Arctic ambient temps. Cyclonic flow and channeled vorticity may produce some more cumulus rows with a few flurries acrs the northeastern third of the County Warning Area for a part of the day. Otherwise, Arctic sunshine with a bit of lingering lofted ice crystals.
Wednesday night...1035+ mb cold dense sfc ridge to slide in acrs the area from the northwest. Sfc winds to continue to decrease under 10 miles per hour or even 5 miles per hour into the overnight. When combined with clear skies, deep snow pack, and frigid start to the evening, many areas to be colder Wed night than Tue night/Wed morning by at least a few degrees. Although the secondary 850 mb mb pool of -28 to near -30c will dump down acrs the Great Lakes and northeast of the region closer to the upper level vortex center, still lingering cold enough values to attain the fcst lows locally of 30 below or colder north of i80, mid to upper 20s below along i80, and 15 to 20 below in the southern third. Would not be surprised if some cold drainage locations north of i80 reach 35 below ambient temps. Thus many record lows for Jan 31 in jeopardy of being broken soundly, including all time record lows for some climate sites. Just brutal "pioneer days" cold of dangerous values. Even with the sfc winds dropping below 10 mph, still getting wind chills of 25 to over 45 below into early Thu morning and the wind chill headlines will continue through 18 Thu.
Thursday...as mentioned above wind chill headlines go to 18z for now, and will have to watch as increasing return flow and even some high cloud cover seep in from the west/southwest ahead of the next system for some non-diurnal temp trends from early Thu morning into mid day. Thus a chance for the headlines to be cancelled early in the southern and southwestern County Warning Area before 18z Thu. Then a clipper low/vort organizing in northwest flow to shuttle down along tightening and warming 850 mb mb baroclinicity for light snow chances from Thu afternoon and into the evening. It's still early in the process, but some signs of at least 1-2+ inches of new snow accums possible by mid Thu evening along the main frontogenetic band from northwest-to-se, it's just where it lays out still very uncertain at this time. Thu highs recovering to double digits above zero in the south, but still may have trouble getting above zero in many areas north of i80. Lows after the clipper passes back close to 10 below in the north Thu night, but most wind chills stay above advisory criteria.
Friday through next Monday...the latest 12z run medium range models continue to advertise a large pattern change this period, with enough of a southerly warm moist conveyor to drive 850 mb mb temps well into the positive realm. Many of the models suggest highs in the 40s for both Sat and especially Sunday for much of the County Warning Area. But with ongoing cold ground and deep snow pack acrs much of the area, many areas may have trouble still getting out of the mid to upper 30s. Increasing moisture advection has the models breaking out light rain and drizzle by late Sat into Sat night, and also there would be a good chance of advection fog with the increasing moisture over the snowpack/cold ground. The cold ground could be initially trouble and act as a refrigerator/ice rink, freezing any liquid precip that falls making for icy roads that are untreated. If the model warming profiles are overdone, could see more of a wintry mix by late Sat as opposed to rain/freeing rain. A more substantial low may roll out along and west of the County Warning Area later Sunday into Monday and may bring more in the way of at least some moderate precip amounts. If we remain on the warm side, it may be all rain locally and will have to watch for some run-off combined with snow melt affecting area waterways. Could be an enhanced ice jam potential if that scenario plays out. Some guidance has the southern County Warning Area hitting the upper 40s or even near 50 degrees on Sunday Feb 3rd, what a roller coaster that would be from earlier in the week. But cold ground and lingering snow pack to be a temper.
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Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
Here,when nights are near freezing? The local news is warning of dangerous cold. Not that it isn't,32f feels incredibly cold pumping gas at 6am. Or even 40's and rain. Get wet in that and its bone chilling Pneumonia making. Lop another 50f off of that and I can only wonder how homeless who stray make it through that. What a sight on cable of temperate places under Siberian cold. Something too on the USA and Europe now drawing record amounts of oil for heating. Good luck that its only the plants.
Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
Here's a weather sticker for your area Jim . Looks pretty rough . Good luck . Will Click for weather forecastWinston-Salem Ten year lows: 15F 19F 20F 5F 4F 15F 7F 8F 14F 19F(2020) 10 Year Average Winter Lowest Low 12.6F ; 30 Year 12.16F Profession:Trachy Defiberer and Palm Spear Puller (free estimates)
Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
The cold you're describing is even colder than Eastern Washington where my Dad and I at high elevations recorded -20 in 1996 while riding snow mobiles at about 2000ft near Danville, WA.
This cold snap seems to be concentrated in the middle north of the country.
Normally, this kind of cold would effect much larger areas. I hope you find unexpected life in the spring!
Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
personally the coldest day/night I have seen was in StL in the late 80s I think....-22F with a daytime high of -11F and almost bare ground so no help from the snow ...just some damn cold air there...if we do see a 50F by 2/3 that would be an incredible(potentially) 80F swing!
Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
I just read your post below about your garden. Man, I know how hard you worked on that. I hate to hear of it. Maybe when spring gets here, the damage won’t be as bad as thought?
Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
I don't know...if it was really -4F in the enclosures its pretty unlikely any palms would make it....they are all pretty small as I was starting over....some of the models are saying 50ish by the weekend which may be hard to attain with such frigid ground and the snowpack but I should get an idea then as to how they faired....I would imagine the Rostrata will collapse, we''ll see.
Thanks Again...
Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
I understand that Celsius is the worldwide accepted standard with temperatures, but it is not helpful when U.S. weather service outlets use it without Fahrenheit translations. All I can do is look at the numbers and think, "I guess that's pretty cold..."
Just a pet peeve of mine.Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal
Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
> Normally, this kind of cold would effect much larger areas. <
I saw one forecast map with snow down to the Gulf of Mexico for this cold snap. Don't know if it'll actually happen.Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal
Jim- I know of no rostrata that died locally here in 2011. That includes an area that saw consecutive nights (2) of -11f. That being said, all events are different. I wish you the best of luck. I know there will be "good" surprises for you come spring.
On a side note, my palms have suffered major damage and some may not make it this winter. 7 consecutive days below freezing with several single digits. C'mon spring! thanks, jwitt Albuquerque, actually Rio Rancho, New Mexico. Zone 7 Annual precip about 8" Elevation =10' shy of a mile although climate change may change that
Re: Yucca rostrata
Posted by Jim in Iowa on 1/29/2019, 8:39 am, in reply to "Yucca rostrata"
Thats good to hear....it was wet before it got covered and I don't think thats going to help....c'mon spring....warmer temps over the weekend should give an idea about the carnage.
Re: Interesting read if you are into weather stuff/lingo
on 1/28/2019, 5:12 pm