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stay well below zero. Record min Max's will be obliterated for the
dbq and mli sites, with areas generally along and north of i80 not
warming above 10 to 15 below. Some deep snow pockets of even colder
highs in the upper teens below zero possible, as secondary elongated
lobe of -24 to -27c 850 mb mb cold pool flows in overhead. As 10 to 20
knots winds decrease to around 10 kts by mid afternoon, afternoon wind
chills will still range from 30 to 40 below acrs most of the County Warning Area
because of the brutal Arctic ambient temps. Cyclonic flow and
channeled vorticity may produce some more cumulus rows with a few
flurries acrs the northeastern third of the County Warning Area for a part of the
day. Otherwise, Arctic sunshine with a bit of lingering lofted ice
crystals.
Wednesday night...1035+ mb cold dense sfc ridge to slide in acrs the
area from the northwest. Sfc winds to continue to decrease under 10
miles per hour or even 5 miles per hour into the overnight. When combined with clear
skies, deep snow pack, and frigid start to the evening, many areas
to be colder Wed night than Tue night/Wed morning by at least a few
degrees. Although the secondary 850 mb mb pool of -28 to near -30c will
dump down acrs the Great Lakes and northeast of the region closer to the
upper level vortex center, still lingering cold enough values to
attain the fcst lows locally of 30 below or colder north of i80, mid
to upper 20s below along i80, and 15 to 20 below in the southern
third. Would not be surprised if some cold drainage locations north
of i80 reach 35 below ambient temps. Thus many record lows for Jan
31 in jeopardy of being broken soundly, including all time record
lows for some climate sites. Just brutal "pioneer days" cold of
dangerous values. Even with the sfc winds dropping below 10 mph,
still getting wind chills of 25 to over 45 below into early Thu
morning and the wind chill headlines will continue through 18 Thu.
Thursday...as mentioned above wind chill headlines go to 18z for
now, and will have to watch as increasing return flow and even some
high cloud cover seep in from the west/southwest ahead of the next
system for some non-diurnal temp trends from early Thu morning into
mid day. Thus a chance for the headlines to be cancelled early in
the southern and southwestern County Warning Area before 18z Thu. Then a clipper
low/vort organizing in northwest flow to shuttle down along
tightening and warming 850 mb mb baroclinicity for light snow chances
from Thu afternoon and into the evening. It's still early in the
process, but some signs of at least 1-2+ inches of new snow accums
possible by mid Thu evening along the main frontogenetic band from
northwest-to-se, it's just where it lays out still very uncertain at this
time. Thu highs recovering to double digits above zero in the south,
but still may have trouble getting above zero in many areas north of
i80. Lows after the clipper passes back close to 10 below in the
north Thu night, but most wind chills stay above advisory criteria.
Friday through next Monday...the latest 12z run medium range models
continue to advertise a large pattern change this period, with
enough of a southerly warm moist conveyor to drive 850 mb mb temps
well into the positive realm. Many of the models suggest highs in
the 40s for both Sat and especially Sunday for much of the County Warning Area. But
with ongoing cold ground and deep snow pack acrs much of the area,
many areas may have trouble still getting out of the mid to upper
30s. Increasing moisture advection has the models breaking out light
rain and drizzle by late Sat into Sat night, and also there would be
a good chance of advection fog with the increasing moisture over the
snowpack/cold ground. The cold ground could be initially trouble and
act as a refrigerator/ice rink, freezing any liquid precip that
falls making for icy roads that are untreated. If the model warming
profiles are overdone, could see more of a wintry mix by late Sat as
opposed to rain/freeing rain. A more substantial low may roll out
along and west of the County Warning Area later Sunday into Monday and may bring
more in the way of at least some moderate precip amounts. If we
remain on the warm side, it may be all rain locally and will have to
watch for some run-off combined with snow melt affecting area
waterways. Could be an enhanced ice jam potential if that scenario
plays out. Some guidance has the southern County Warning Area hitting the upper 40s
or even near 50 degrees on Sunday Feb 3rd, what a roller coaster
that would be from earlier in the week. But cold ground and
lingering snow pack to be a temper.
&&