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You are correct to be horrified. That is an insane statement. And it doesn't take any effort to work it out.
Let's assume that a player really wants to win a quinella game. If he loses his first point,there is no guarantee that he will even return to the court for another shot. Compare that to Battle Court where you could lose your first 8 points in a row and still come back to win.
We have a table of the impact of winning or losing the first point in a Spec 7 game. Both in percents and ratios.
post base won 1st lost 1st
1 0.163 0.238 0.098
2 0.163 0.236 0.096
3 0.139 0.185 0.083
4 0.124 0.185 0.066
5 0.102 0.148 0.053
6 0.103 0.169 0.041
7 0.089 0.146 0.030
8 0.118 0.218 0.021
post base won 1st lost 1st
1 6.1 4.2 10.2
2 6.1 4.2 10.4
3 7.2 5.4 12.1
4 8.1 5.4 15.1
5 9.8 6.8 18.8
6 9.7 5.9 24.5
7 11.3 6.9 32.8
8 8.5 4.6 47.8
Post 8 drops to almost a 1 in 50 win chance if it loses its first point.
Now compare that with the impact of the first point outcome in Battle Court. In BC the impact is minimal.
If I wanted to I could analyze the impact of losing your first 2 points, or even every possible Spec 7 match up. But why? It should be obvious to anyone here that in Spec 7 points, it's very often do or die.
So the idea that quinella games are the ideal place to try out your ultra-low percentage junk shots only makes sense if you think that the games themselves are unimportant. Is that the message?


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