Decide league on points per game basisArchived Message
Posted by FLI on 9/4/2020, 10:01 pm
If it is decided that the league should be ended and positions based on a points per game basis then , in my view, it is not a simple question of taking the current points per game as this would potentially ignore four important aspects :
1. Remaining games for some teams may be more weighted towards in form teams or teams towards the top half of the division.
2. There will inevitably be an imbalance in current points per game favouring those teams who have played more games at home (where normally you have a better points to game ratio) and penalising the vice versa position.
3. Teams with more games left in the originally scheduled remaining weeks of the season will, in all probability ,not achieve the same points per game ratio because of fixture pile up etc..
4. Towards the end of the season when teams fighting relegation they can produce, for the want of a better expression , some ‘ barmy results’
So if points per game is to be used then surely the above factors need to be included and factored into final positioning.
This could be done by using actuaries or statisticians employing historical trends and data on previous seasons to arrive at a likely outcome based on all these factors together with current points to games.
I think what I am trying to say is that mathematical and statistical formulas with weighting’s etc could also be used. A bit similar to Duckworth and Lewis that is used in cricket which has all kinds of factors and probabilities
Not saying that what I have said is perfect but better minds than myself could develop something that would be fairer than just current points to games . It would also iron out to a statistically based degree the four anomalies referred to above
Having said that we may still not end up in play offs but it potentially could be a fairer outcome