Not arguing that its not very serious, but haven't you just played around with percentages to come up with a hypothetical scenario yourself? . To put it into perspective, China claims to have lost around, 3,000 lives but now appear to have it under control. No one really believes that figure so multiply it by 10 and let's say its actually 30,000 before they got it under control. In a country of 1.4 billion people, and using your half the population get it theory coupled with the death rate you've used then you would be expecting 7m deaths. As you say you can make stats, figures, percentages say whatever you want to say, and you're right we should be careful as this is serious, but we should also be careful to keep things in perspective. Time will tell I suppose.