I think your analysis is the correct one.But the Brexit uncertainty will be a factor.
I presume they hedge their aviation fuel, so the only other factor worth mentioning is terrorism in that apparently they were very active in the Red Sea resorts ( Smarm el Sheikh etc) and tourist traffic was badly impacted by terrorism. Maybe North Africa as well.
But in essence, it is the familiar story of too much debt ( £1.7 billion) and a seasonal business and cash flow management. The MyTravel write down of £1.1 bn has destroyed shareholder value and the provisional syndicated rescue facility is now dependent on them finding some £200m .