Look at Farr's law and we should be coming towards the bottom of the curve in next few weeks but there will be local differences. I'd expect fewer cases in September with improved immune systems due to summer, with cases rising (obviously no idea how much) late autumn/winter. If schools are closed then, she will go, as there will be fewer kids in. The "evidence" that kids don't pass it on looks weak at the moment. But that might change.
Below you seem to suggest that large scale immunity is not protective of those children who don't go, but that is not the case, the more who get it the less likely it is to see more cases- herd immunity, nobody knows what % is required. You are correct though that this isn't going away short of a vaccine. One of my patients had H1N1 a few weeks ago...
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