Re: UIL Released Message
Posted by DesertJazz on 7/21/2020, 3:18 pm, in reply to "Re: UIL Released Message"
You're right on the deaths not being 100%, the rest of your argument is a very narrow sighted focus on the present. It's like reading music and not paying attention to the upcoming key signature change from D Major to Gb Major. |
This is an exponential growth issue - if you don't stop it now at the 1.2% of the state being diagnosed as infected, then later on down the road it becomes even more impossible to stop it. Just supposing that we stay on the same trajectory we have been on in the state. Our Seven Day average for growth is 4%, with a smallest day of 2%, and a highest day of 6%. Keeping just that growth rate puts us at 20% of the state by October. Now, that may not seem bad, but as you grow numerically (not percentage) you will have more carriers and that growth rate will spike significantly.
It looks to me like the data from past few days shows there may be an impact from closing the bars and pushing masks - but it's not down low like it should be to reopen schools. Looking at all of the countries who had completely flattened the curve, and reopened, we see spikes in their cases with students being at school. Moreover we know that kids ages 10-18 spread this bug at the same rate or higher than adults from other studies coming out of South Korea. (Where they've actually contract traced sufficiently enough to tell)
Having our sports program go with no restrictions, filling stadiums even to the 50% mentioned today, is still not going to mitigate that spike.
Finally we have had one death in my town this week of someone who had been around for a long time as a custodian. It may not be 100% death, but are you okay with with being responsible for having a rehearsal, a kid had it - spread it, and that kid carries it home and their parent dies? What is marching band worth?
I'm not sure what I'm doing with this guidance because I think it's creating more problems than anything they could have done. Christmas concert on the field effectively becomes mandatory. Whereas we could normally spend through State on our contest show, and then work on six to eight new pieces for a winter concert, now we're having to focus on UIL still if we go that route. For those who have played playoff games into December - we all know about the lack of daylight to run evening rehearsals. I know our stadium isn't likely to be lined every week after our last home game... The temperatures could be nice down here in South Texas, or they might be terrible like the North is likely to deal with.
I do want to say I appreciate that it looks like UIL Music did the best they could with the poor decision making as a whole. The fact that they pushed back the first day of drill for ALL conferences, tells me that they probably have some misgivings of their own. BOA threw in the towel today, most states have, but UIL isn't... Makes no sense.