Re: Here ya go
Posted by DesertJazz on 6/19/2020, 2:03 pm, in reply to "Re: Here ya go"
If behavior changes you might be right there. I wouldn't count on a complete lack of deaths though there based on some of the very odd effects with blood clotting that seem to be occurring in that age group. (We have a close family friend of my dad's with a daughter in rough shape right now because of this) |
The problem here with the idea of it going away would involve behavior changes that I don't see happening here. With no mask enforcement, open bars and restaurants, and soon to be open schools... Our transmission rate is going to increase. There's a saying that exponential growth doesn't seem that bad until it is. Take lily pads on a pond that start with one, and double every day. On the day before every part of the pond being covered, there's still only half coverage. The next day it's fully there.
With this we'll never hit 100% infected just due to a point where it gets harder to transmit because less people can catch it (herd immunity), but even at the 70% required there that's a lot of people! More importantly those 20 somethings don't live in a vacuum. They will interact with older and younger people that will also catch and transmit it. As of yesterday 0.35% of Texans have been confirmed to have COVID. (That number is likely double to triple based on extrapolating from death rates though) Once we start seeing the full percentages in mid-July (based on current rates) we'll see a lot more spread quickly.
I'm personally most concerned that the percent has bumped up to a 4% increase per day the last few days... if that stays there we're okay, but if it hits 10% again and increases that's where some drastic measures should be used again. Until then simple ones like wearing masks would probably keep us in the low growth rate. Unfortunately the governor plans on us not screening or wearing masks - that is going to be a disaster.