Re: Serious Covid-19 question
Posted by DesertJazz on 6/11/2020, 9:12 am, in reply to "Serious Covid-19 question"
Simple answer, that number will increase, and continue to do until such time as there is a vaccine in place, or 70-80% of the population has an immunity from having it. (Assuming immunity does hold with this - it should, but people aren't certain yet) |
This virus is like anything that grows by spreading between hosts, it's an exponential problem. Even if you only grow something at 1-3% the numbers will continue to get bigger. I find it interesting that testing numbers supposedly are increasing, but really we've seemed to cap out at about 400k tests per day. Keep in mind that there are still cases that people need multiple tests before there's enough in their systems to pop positive, so some of them are repeated tests. People like the White House staff would also be included in that count.
What that means really though is that there's a whole population still not being tested. I would treat the data almost more like a poll right now. It's a decent representative sample, but it's not a perfect picture. The hospitalization rate in Texas is increasing - that's the most accurate part of our data. If you estimate that 5% of cases have to be hospitalized, right now you can roughly extrapolate there are 50k active cases in Texas. (I believe it was about 2400 hospitalized yesterday I don't have the number at hand right now) Looking at the John Hopkins site showing 80k confirmed in Texas, 50k recovered, that means there's potentially 20k cases not being reported right now in that 80k. It's one of the signs we're probably not catching all of the cases.
The other way you can look is from the death side. Right now 1905 deaths are being reported. If .6% of cases are fatal we're at an estimated 317k cases. (.6% has been the most stable number from studies over the last few months) Those numbers kind of give you a range of 100k-300k probably actually have it or have had it. It's enough that you can definitely say either, A) numbers of cases are underreported, or B) this bug is deadlier than we've been saying. Given the people I know who have checked all but one box and been refused testing I think we can say it's most likely A.
Going back to your original question. That means undetected cases are out there, in especially all of our large cities like Houston. Cell phone data is showing that the movement of people has almost gone back to normal activity levels. Where people are all using masks reliably there's going to be less transmission, but where there's not it's back to March. Case rates a couple weeks ago were pretty stable at the 1% nationwide and in Texas. Here in Texas it's increasing to between 2-3% more regularly. With no safeguards slowing things down it'll probably be up above 10% by the end of July.
All of us starting things like sports and marching band up may or may not increase it, but I would be very surprised if in the course of the next six months that we don't each have a case that shuts down our programs for 14 days (or longer).
We're pretending everything is fine and going back to normal, but truthfully as I stated before, it's a vaccine or the large percent having it to make it go away as a problem.