Re: Itís absolutely ridiculous!
Posted by Twelfth Monkey on 4/3/2020, 10:09 am, in reply to "Re: Itís absolutely ridiculous!"
So I definitely donít want to be that guy on this message board, but before I switched to performance in university, I was an organic chemistry major, and prepped for the MCAT. |
Let me lay out everything, as best as I can. As honestly as I can.
This contagion is quite wicked. Lets compare it to Ebola Zaire. That virus quickly kills its host, far too fast to cause as much of a public health threat.
It is not airborne. Direct contact with fluids or infected hosts are required to contract the Ebola Virus. And, once infected, hosts show symptoms relatively soon after exposure, this virus is somewhat the opposite.
The coronavirus gets its name due to the structural appearance images with an electron microscope, and the appearance denotes a crown like structure on the envelope outer area, hence, corona, for crown.
It is different in sequence and genetic nature compared to strains of influenza. As such, the development and manufacture of a vaccine is going to take some time.
Much of our existing vaccination manufacturing structure is based on the use of eggs, which isnít feasible in the production of the vaccine for this type of virus.
Sequencing (mapping) testing, and ramping up production For a commodity literally the entire world wants just as bad as we do, means, the earliest time for availability would be, optimistically, approximately 12-18 months or so.
That is important to keep in mind, because of how this virus works, in transmission.
One of the primary challenges with this particular contagion is its ability to infect a host, replicate, and be spread to others by a host showing no symptoms, during its incubation and active period. That lasts about 14 days. This is referred to as a patient or host that is asymptomatic.
After incubation, and through a course of infection until the body is able to create antigens (immunity), for most people who develop and who are showing symptoms, once recovered, that person can still infect others, for to 10 days, or so. This is a major challenge for public health officials.
Right now, we havenít seen anything close to the end and are going to have the very nature of our resolve as a State, and a nation in the next twenty one days, and further down the road after that, put to the greatest test in modern times.
As Iím sure youíve noticed, countries around the world are struggling to deal with this pandemic, however we are in a particularly vulnerable position, due to our lack of healthcare provisions and in addition, we have an almost nonexistent social safety net.
In Texas we have 800,000 or so children that have no insurance, about one in five to one in six children live at or below the poverty level, and we have are one of 14 states that has yet to expand Medicaid. In the last 5 to 10 years at least eight major rural hospitals have closed. With over 5 million people with no insurance, Take a second to consider that when this disease hits our state itís going to be hitting a state with a population that consists of 1/4 of all uninsured people in the country. The financial situation on account of this alone, will be substantial.
What we are doing right now is just an emergency measure, to ensure that our entire medical system does not collapse. After that, and during the next few months, our economy will be an anomaly for which Keynes, Hayek, Friedman...all have no good way out that will be politically viable. Keynesian economic theories rely on incentivized application that assumes consumer confidence and spending, otherwise known as consumption; Demand. If everyone has back rent to pay and unpaid bills who is filing for bankruptcy, or has substantial medical debt, or facing foreclosure, Even a cash infusion, most individuals will not be able, or willing to spend as before.
Given that closer to half if not more than half of all Americans will be looking at significant financial setbacks and unprecedented levels of defaults on rental or housing payments, and potential defaults on unsecured debt...with 10 million people out of work now, In the next 28 days or less I can assure you that will double at the very least. At a peak, weíre likely looking at up to 30% unemployment as projected by the federal reserve and echoed in many ways closely by chief economists of several major financial institutions.
Short of adoption or application of modern monetary theory, there is a significant risk that we will not only have a recession, but a depression.
If not properly handled, the possibility for total economic collapse does exist, but is highly unlikely. What is more likely is a significant disruption to the economy for at least 2 to 4 years.
Hopefully we stay lucky, and get lucky. Iíd expect significant things to change.
So, If I had to give you an honest answer reflecting the information that is available, Based on actions taken by California and several other states, it is entirely likely that school will not resume for the remainder of this academic year, and be limited to distance learning.
You will have a job though so I guess thatís a plus.
And again to be honest with you, where are the governor, I would also do the same in terms of ensuring and planning for school do not resume on campus for the remainder of the academic year.
Our little band program isn't all that important right now. Not even two years from now this whole thing will merely be a bump in the road as far as band is concerned.
I really feel sorry for the band directors that are stressed about their program at a time like this.
You will have a job.
There will be a band for kids to participate in.
You will be able to put kids on the field and make pretty little pictures while playing their horn and then take up too many Saturdays in the fall trying to see if your pretty little picture-making band is better that the other little pretty picture-making bands.
You might have to turn in an Honor Band recording that ONLY YOU prepared because you lost the days that were supposed to be for the guy to come in and show you how it goes.
Your beginner number will be fine next year. Be creative and figure out a way to test them in the evenings during summer band if we don't go back at all.
IT IS JUST BAND. People are dying and we're worried about this silly thing that we chose to do.
It'll be fine.
What do you guys thing about all the mess thatís still going on and how it will affect your program?