I think a whole lot of people are moving, not leaving. I think a lot of people think they can find their Utopian job out there that will pay them a bazillion dollars and they'll never have to do anything they don't want to and that dream will be short lived.

As the economy enters a recession we are about to see housing plummet and unemployment go up. That means fewer teachers will be able to jump industries. Teaching has its problems, (pay isn't one of them), but so does every industry. Teaching is also recession proof and pandemic proof and very stable with lots of time built in for family/vacations.

So while we hear of shortages I think it will be short-lived as teachers find the other industries aren't as accessible and require year round schedules with limited vacation. That said, teaching has always had a very high attrition rate for the first 5 years. Any teacher that makes it to year 6 is a vet and that's been true for decades. Younger teachers have a better chance of changing industries than older teachers as well.

I will say it again, find me a job a 22 year old can do with 1 degree and 13 weeks vacation and get paid 65k. Don't forget those high paying doctors and lawyers are still in school and taking out loans at 22, (most doctors have 10 years of school before they ever start making money).....