Multiply those numbers times the age groups that are effected in Texas and reach that 70% of herd immunity I would throw out here are your numbers to get to that point:
0-18: 5,236,656 Cases - 345,619 Hospitalizations - 5,237 deaths
19-64: 25,516,375 Cases - 2,028,551 Hospitalizations - 242,405 deaths
That's not including the nursing home rates you're discussing. The problem with kids is who they come in contact with. Let's just look at my small school district. When students are in their classes the average age is probably about 40 right now for teachers. We have a few older teachers, but most of our staff right now is younger. Look at the custodial staff - we have one lady (sweet lady) who is around 70, several in their late 50s/early 60s. Our food services staff matches that as well. With our drivers we have several older gentlemen who are in the risky category. Keep in mind that all of those people will be getting exposed to pre-symptomatic cases, or very low symptom cases that are still contagious.
Right now with no underlying conditions 1.6% of patients are experiencing fatalities according that report I referenced. Now, before you note it - yes there is probably some inflation from not testing well enough and missing cases. This is the data being presented by the CDC on this disease that is as accurate and current as they can send in. Mortality and Morbidity is/has always been one of the gold standard publications with infectious diseases.
If we really want to be back at school we need to be able to test everyone involved in a school/sport. Until we can do that we're playing roulette until we have a case. Once we have that case we're going to have to shut down... On the theory of the closed network, that might work to some extent if you didn't play any other teams, fly to any other stadiums, etc. Things are probably going to be pushed forward, but I think we're going to get handed our rears in the end by rushing ahead.