If a bunch of programs in the Pro, NCAA, and UIL settings start getting cases it might cause a momentary pause. The amount of money involved in everything though with football means UIL is not incentivized to play it safe.
Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio may very well also be tipping points if the case rates get higher there. We have one county that just put a travel advisory out for Houston again. If we see things like that popping up and common sense takes over for a few districts, it may spread statewide.
If I were to place bets we go back at the beginning as normal, and by late September it'll blow up in our faces and we'll be back home. Unless the ability to test everyone on a weekly basis suddenly appears in our schools we will inevitably have cases of shutting down while we wait for results of exposed students/staff.
Personally I think it's more of a risk than is worth it, but knowing what the minds at UIL and the governors office are thinking - that's probably where we end up.