Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board

Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board
[ Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board ]

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Ugly and dangerous

Posted by Jim in Iowa <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Jim+in+Iowa' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/23/2019, 8:54 am

We already have a foot of snow on the ground....
if the snow forecast verifies and we hit high end totals
we may see another foot by next Monday.....and then this may happen....

Keep in mind the first wave of cold will produce AT LEAST
-10F to -15F temps and the second one mentioned below is colder
I don't know if they are saying record cold for the date or record
cold period but our record low is -31F I believe....now check this out.

From the local forecasters discussion this morning.

Starting to see more agreement in models of a much stronger clipper
system for Sunday into Monday. Stronger dynamics/forcing and
cold snow ratios point to the potential for accumulations of 4+
inches along it's track, which is uncertain at this point. What is
more certain however, is that this system will likely dislodge
another chunk of Arctic air that will persist through the middle of
next week. Anomalies suggest this airmass could be even colder than
the one for the end of this current week. Should the magnitude of
this cold remain unchanged and with a deepening snowpack between now
and then, this would bring the likelihood of record cold to the region.

If this happens it may get cold enough that the protection won't be enough,
the extra snow may help to insulate but this could be
a zone busting/yard ending event.

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Posted by Jim Wilmington DE 7a <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Jim+Wilmington+DE+7a' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/23/2019, 10:12 am, in reply to "Ugly and dangerous"

My first thought is all the snow you have will help with the plants, but my God, -31F?? Not much in the way of subtropical/Mediterranean plants can survive that kind of cold. Even for half an hour.

Often, but not always, your tough cold snaps become my tough cold snaps, 1 or 2 days after they hit you. So, I will pay strict attention to the forecasts for Delaware.

Our winter low so far is 9F. A warm 7b temp.

I'd be elated if we get no colder than that the rest of the winter.

Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a
Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F
Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F
Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F
Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Posted by Stan Hayward CA <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Stan+Hayward+CA' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/23/2019, 11:34 am, in reply to "Ugly and dangerous"

Stick a spot light under the cover... a car engine heater maybe? Something that keeps them above killing temps.

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Posted by Jim in Iowa <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Jim+in+Iowa' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/23/2019, 3:01 pm, in reply to "Re: Ugly and dangerous"

When it gets -20 to -30F this is very penetrating cold.

Re: Ugly and dangerous

We have been only -1F so far....haha. zone 7a?

Maybe z4 by this time next week.

God help us if the power went out.

This is what I was worried about

M***** F*****

Sunday night and monday: next in the hit parade is a significant
snowstorm with the potential for accumulations of 6+ inches and
strong winds. As of now the models are suggesting the heaviest snow
falling along and north of I-80 but this will depend on the track of
the surface low and phasing. Temperatures will moderate with highs
in the teens north and 20s south.

Tuesday through wednesday: in the wake of this system (and the much
deeper snowpack that will be in place) this will set the stage for
brutally cold Arctic airmass to plunge southward into the Midwest.
If the European model (ecmwf) is correct this may be historic (record) cold as the
polar vortex drops into the Great Lakes region. 850 mb temperatures
drop to an incredible -34 to -36c down to northern IL!. the GFS is
not as brutal keeping the vortex up towards James Bay with 850 mb
temps only to -26c. Either way you look at it this will be extreme
cold with record temperatures possible. The grids indicate lows well
below zero early Thursday morning, as low as 20 below in our north.
However, this is heavily weighted on the GFS model, so if the European model (ecmwf)
is correct it will be much colder than currently forecast, possibly
to 30 below zero or colder ambient temperature!

Help!

Re: Ugly and dangerous

If your power goes out, do you have a gas stove?

It's not the smartest thing (because of carbon monoxide buildup) but if you run a couple of burners at medium height, you can keep a small house tolerably warm. A kerosene heater would be a must for me if I lived in a place where -10F is a regular event in winter. Just as a backup in an outage.

PS: -1F is technically 6b. Granted, a warm 6b.

Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a
Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F
Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F
Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F
Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Posted by Tommy Nashville-Miami <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Tommy+Nashville-Miami' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/23/2019, 10:57 pm, in reply to "Ugly and dangerous"

Don't worry Jim. I'll have a talk with Mother Nature. Sit tight.

"Oh, Dixie Land, I hope you understand
When I miss my Tennessee Home
And I've been away way too long
I can't see this world unless I go
Outside my Southern Comfort Zone"- Brad Paisley

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Posted by Jim in Iowa <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Jim+in+Iowa' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/24/2019, 12:01 am, in reply to "Re: Ugly and dangerous"

Thanks!

Make her happy please.....

and don't try to fool her, you know? Like in those old commercials...
she doesn't like that lol

Re: Ugly and dangerous

good idea....I guess I could turn the oven on, it is gas...
sounds better than going out to light a fire.....you may have
saved me there.....lets not split hairs over a degree....that
number will be obliterated tomorrow night anyway...

Light at the end of the tunnel....?

Still have to get past the worst of it but this is encouraging.

There is a high risk for hazardous extreme cold for much of
the Midwest, including the dvn cwa. The climate prediction center
has a 90% probability of well below normal temperatures. Historic
(record) cold is likely during this period. There will be a
highly amplified trough centered over Hudson Bay with a cross-
polar flow. Beyond this time period the upper level flow should
transition to more zonal, allowing for a slow moderation of the
cold.

Re: Light at the end of the tunnel....?

Well, we're more than 1/6th of the way to Summer Solstice. And we're in the second half of Meteorological Winter.

Gotta find optimism where you can.

Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a
Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F
Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F
Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F
Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal

WICKED!

Sunday night and monday: next in the hit parade is a significant
snowstorm with the potential for accumulations of 6+ inches and
strong winds. There is the potential for a foot of snow but too soon
to tell the axis of the heaviest snow band. Models indicate a 50
knot low level jet impinging on a very tight thermal gradient, suggesting very
strong upward motion. The latest run of the GFS/European model (ecmwf) has come in
farther south with the track of the surface low, with the European model (ecmwf)
taking the low across far northern MO. This puts much of the cwa
squarely in a significant snowstorm. Temperatures will moderate with
highs in the teens north and 20s south.

Tuesday through thursday: in the wake of this system (and the much
deeper snowpack that will be in place) this will set the stage for
brutally cold Arctic airmass to plunge southward into the Midwest.
Now the GFS indicates a pocket of -40c 850 mb temps dropping across
the dvn cwa, while the European model (ecmwf) has backed off somewhat bringing -30c
h8 temps. Either solution suggests the potential for historic
(record) cold as the polar vortex drops into the Great Lakes region.
The grids indicate lows well below zero during much of this period,
with Thursday morning as low as 23 below in our north. Appears there
will be enough wind to keep temperatures from really bottoming out,
but the bad news is wind chills may go as low as 45 below zero!

-40C (850mb temps) is insane! Never personally seen that here...this in (F)
would mean the potential for -40F surface temps.
Even at -30C your still looking at potentially -30F !

-40C upper air temps can translate to similar surface temps
esp with a massive snowpack...interestingly -40C is -40F
but flip that around in the summer( +40C 850mb temps) and you have a heatwave.....aprox = 105F

Re: WICKED!

My car thermo said 68f today Jim. I don't how you and those even farther north and colder do it.
You do have great summers.
Don't give up..a week of heating saves a decade of plant growth.

Re: WICKED!

Posted by Jim in Iowa <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Jim+in+Iowa' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/25/2019, 12:15 am, in reply to "Re: WICKED!"

My electricity is maxed out....if I was going to
put any kind of heat out I would do it for this
poor little cat that has been sleeping in the stairway
by my door(outside) this poor little guy must be freezing
(-2F right now) I put a thick comforter out there so he can
crawl into it to keep warm....must be absolute hell for the
poor animals out there....and it will get much colder still.

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Posted by WSimpson NC <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=WSimpson+NC' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/25/2019, 3:36 pm, in reply to "Ugly and dangerous"

I'm seeing a -17F there Jim . That at least isn't -30F .
Good luck and maybe it won't be that bad .
I've got a 17F showing from one weather site so I may want to turn on the Washy protection again .
Will

Winston-Salem
Ten year lows: 20F 5F 4F 15F 7F 8F 14F 19F 16F 16F(2022)
10 Year Average Winter Lowest Low 12.4F ; 30 Year 12.3F
Profession:Trachy Defiberer and Palm Spear Puller (free estimates)

Re: WICKED!

Looking at the NWS call for my area, the worst temp in the 7-day is +10F. The worst daily high is 22F.

AccuWeather is a little colder with nightly lows around 6F during the worst of it.

Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a
Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F
Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F
Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F
Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Thanks Will. -9F last night..

They won't go with any lower numbers yet but
they get lower every time I look at the forecast....
waiting to check out the latest forecaster discussion now.

Looking at the forecast we see -18F and -17F back to
back...which is worse -35F for one day or this back to back
stuff...probably not a lot of difference except maybe a high of -10F
one day...lowest I have ever seen was in StL when it hit -22F at
my house....high was -11F. I think we will surpass that, the wrong way

Re: WICKED!

That sounds pleasant!

Does not appear the cold stays to long...damage will be done.
All the covered stuff held its own
last night,19F near the Terscheckii.....-9F on the other side of the plastic

Probably be back in the 50s the week after the
way this somewhat odd winter has gone here.

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Posted by Brad - Pittsburgh <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Brad+-+Pittsburgh' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/28/2019, 10:57 pm, in reply to "Ugly and dangerous"

Whoa!!! I knew you guys were getting it bad, but -31!!! Prayers for you and your landscaping!

Zone 6a, 20 miles SE of Pittsburgh
Previous gardens in Dubois, Pa, Walnut Creek, CA, and Lancaster, NY
Other interests: Edibles, fragrance, hummingbirds and butterflies, and deer resistance

Re: Ugly and dangerous

Posted by Jim in Iowa <iframe src='https://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/info/user=Jim+in+Iowa' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on 1/30/2019, 8:42 am, in reply to "Re: Ugly and dangerous"

-21F this morning, colder tonight if calm winds....dew-point was -29F
so the potential is there.

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