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Forecast for Jan-Feb-March :( Edit: The Weather Channel just mentioned NAO)
Posted by WSimpson NC on 1/1/2019, 9:39 am
I wonder if this is indicative of a Negative AO forming where a blocking High keeps cold air funneling down from Canada into the South . It didn't get severely cold the last one that I remember but every day sucked and was below average for weeks on end . It seemed that when I should've been moving into the mid 50'sF for highs , every high temperature was from about 35-42F , and the low temps were from about 22-28F , and I remember a lot of cloudy weather too , I think ? It may have been an 8A winter which would be the only consolation after all the below average temps . Can anyone contribute anything meteorologically as they look at the data and this map ? Sam used to chime in about this stuff . The actual forecast looks OK on temps here and of course somewhat wet off and on ( I think 2018 was the wettest year on record here . Wilmington , NC had over 100" of rain in 2018 ) . Longterm is mainly what I'm thinking about ( as usual Global Warming right where I live lol ) .
( Edit : I just heard TWC mention the sun cycles and the low solar activity and a correlation with NAO . )
I honestly think no one knows. I've seen the opposite happen about 60% of the time for every forecast over 5 days out. If there's one thing I've learned about long-term forecasts (at least in my opinion), they aren't worth any stress whatsoever. The only forecast I can rely on is that The National Hurricane Center will predict the exact opposite of what will happen."Oh, Dixie Land, I hope you understand When I miss my Tennessee Home And I've been away way too long I can't see this world unless I go Outside my Southern Comfort Zone"- Brad Paisley
Re: Forecast for Jan-Feb-March :( Edit: The Weaher Channel just mentioned NAO)
We are starting a polar vortex split now and it takes 2-3 weeks for this to translate to the surface here. The NAO/AO is just one teleconnection in a bunch as there are others. The GFS and ECMWF are predicting a negative AO/NAO to set up, but it doesn’t always mean the worst here. The worst sector of the split seems to be going to go to Eurasia and a weaker segment seems to be forecasted here. Assuming we survive this with no worse than what we typically get in the East, it will be a mild winter and my forecast will be incorrect based on what I posted weeks ago. This will be the second year in a row of this where teleconnections and analog based forecasting has not served me well (or other forecasters either). Most services predicted similar to me. But meteorological scenarios are projected based on odds. It’s like in baseball, sometimes the pitcher gets a basehit! It just happens. But I’m starting to think that the teleconnection forecasting is losing steam as a reliable tool. I feel like changing Arctic Sea Ice anomalies may be why. I think in the future, month to month might be better. Many like to say that it’s impossible to predict beyond a few days. But general trends can be predicted 2-4 weeks out with good accuracy. Specific details are hard to work out. Beyond that it’s hard.
I’m short, the way it’s looking now, we will see some cold weather within the next 2 weeks or so. How bad will end up defining winter. Bare in mind winter is really quite young still. Inaccurate forecasts are everywhere, but the science is what it is. Here’s more on the coming PV.
Thanks Sam . I hope most everything stays away . I wish it could just stay around average . I'll keep an eye out for those cold shots . WillWinston-Salem Ten year lows: 20F 5F 4F 15F 7F 8F 14F 19F 16F 16F(2022) 10 Year Average Winter Lowest Low 12.4F ; 30 Year 12.3F Profession:Trachy Defiberer and Palm Spear Puller (free estimates)
I wish I could just stay about average Tommy . Sam thinks we'll get some shots of cold in a few weeks or so . I'm usually happy with an 8A winter , so maybe I can squeeze that out . Thanks , WillWinston-Salem Ten year lows: 20F 5F 4F 15F 7F 8F 14F 19F 16F 16F(2022) 10 Year Average Winter Lowest Low 12.4F ; 30 Year 12.3F Profession:Trachy Defiberer and Palm Spear Puller (free estimates)
Sam, I don't know that long range weather forecasting is EVER going to get anywhere. But then, I wonder if, in 1960, anyone in Meteorology thought we'd have reasonably accurate 5-day forecasts by 1990.
Here's an analogy that I came up with. Imagine a couple dancing in a club to a song. They're free-styling. If we watched them for a minute, analyzing very closely what they were doing, then froze the action at 1:00 (one minute) and had to predict how each partner would continue to move for the rest of the record -- let's say another 3 minutes -- how well would we do? My guess is we would be very accurate for the next 3 to 5 seconds. We might be somewhat accurate 5 to 10 seconds out. But by 30 seconds out and until the end of the song, we'd probably be nowhere close to guessing where each partner would even be on the floor, let alone where their arms and legs would be. Like weather, there are simply too many variables -- too many things acting both independently and in concert with each other -- for us to accurately see ahead of time how it will all pan out.Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal
Re: Hi Sam!
Posted by Sam TN on 1/3/2019, 1:07 am, in reply to "Hi Sam!"
That’s correct, Jim. In theory, if the math was modeled and performed to absolute perfection, we could predict weather from here until eternity, but we just simply do not possess that level of understanding. It’s flat out humiliating to know everything possible in a field, yet fall short in the forecasts as so many forecasters often do. It is still early and there’s way too much time to go, but it remains to be seen what becomes of winter. I can offer though we have increasing odds of below average weather coming to the East very soon. Maybe that’s more accurate to say than saying it will or it won’t happen. The hell of it is, if the same setup occurred 100 times, I’d still say the same outcome, and probably be right usually, but these last two are “teleconnection anomalous”!!!
I think I am even softening my view of climate change too. I just think we really don’t know what the heck is going on and I refuse to be stubborn enough to wallow in my pride and not admit it. I know it sure isn’t cooling down. A few years back, I felt like I was on to the answer, and told this board then so would say if I was wrong or right in the end. The expected cooling has not happened as I thought back 8-10 years ago. It’s time to go back to the classroom and let Mother Nature continue to throw out more riddles. I still enjoy learning though, and while I could probably ace most collegiate level meteorology courses to this day, it doesn’t help me understand the big picture any better than the next forecaster. Collectively, we just aren’t there yet as a society. I may post soon on why I thought as I did and why it’s likely wrong in the future, soon on this board as I’m a person of my word.
Until then, bring on the warmth!!!
Re: Forecast for Jan-Feb-March :( Edit: The Weaher Channel just mentioned NAO)
n/mWinston-Salem Ten year lows: 20F 5F 4F 15F 7F 8F 14F 19F 16F 16F(2022) 10 Year Average Winter Lowest Low 12.4F ; 30 Year 12.3F Profession:Trachy Defiberer and Palm Spear Puller (free estimates)
Re: Hi Sam!
Posted by Jim Wilmington DE 7a on 1/4/2019, 8:51 am, in reply to "Re: Hi Sam!"
I never was a Global Cooling guy. I've always been a Global Warming guy since the wickedly cold mid 1980s let up. However, I think the rate of warming just hasn't been as fast and unstoppable as many portrayed it to be about 20 years ago. At least not in North America. It still snows. It still gets to single digits here.
Many places east of the Mississippi have gone up half a zone since 1960, and some places, maybe closer to a full zone. But rare is the place that's gotten warmer than that. So, at least judged by that metric, the warming is slow and subtle. I still have to defrost my car windows most mornings. I still have to bundle up going outdoors. Winter winds still sting my face and numb my hands if I forget my gloves.
What I would love is for the Tropic of Capricorn to advance north to 10S and the Tropic of Cancer to slide down to 10N. I believe that here in the Middle Atlantic, such a thing would result in milder winters and cooler summers. That would suit me just fine.Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal
on 1/1/2019, 9:39 am
