That’s correct, Jim. In theory, if the math was modeled and performed to absolute perfection, we could predict weather from here until eternity, but we just simply do not possess that level of understanding. It’s flat out humiliating to know everything possible in a field, yet fall short in the forecasts as so many forecasters often do. It is still early and there’s way too much time to go, but it remains to be seen what becomes of winter. I can offer though we have increasing odds of below average weather coming to the East very soon. Maybe that’s more accurate to say than saying it will or it won’t happen. The hell of it is, if the same setup occurred 100 times, I’d still say the same outcome, and probably be right usually, but these last two are “teleconnection anomalous”!!!

I think I am even softening my view of climate change too. I just think we really don’t know what the heck is going on and I refuse to be stubborn enough to wallow in my pride and not admit it. I know it sure isn’t cooling down. A few years back, I felt like I was on to the answer, and told this board then so would say if I was wrong or right in the end. The expected cooling has not happened as I thought back 8-10 years ago. It’s time to go back to the classroom and let Mother Nature continue to throw out more riddles. I still enjoy learning though, and while I could probably ace most collegiate level meteorology courses to this day, it doesn’t help me understand the big picture any better than the next forecaster. Collectively, we just aren’t there yet as a society. I may post soon on why I thought as I did and why it’s likely wrong in the future, soon on this board as I’m a person of my word.

Until then, bring on the warmth!!!