Hardy Palm and Subtropical Board
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Sam, I don't know that long range weather forecasting is EVER going to get anywhere. But then, I wonder if, in 1960, anyone in Meteorology thought we'd have reasonably accurate 5-day forecasts by 1990.
Here's an analogy that I came up with. Imagine a couple dancing in a club to a song. They're free-styling. If we watched them for a minute, analyzing very closely what they were doing, then froze the action at 1:00 (one minute) and had to predict how each partner would continue to move for the rest of the record -- let's say another 3 minutes -- how well would we do? My guess is we would be very accurate for the next 3 to 5 seconds. We might be somewhat accurate 5 to 10 seconds out. But by 30 seconds out and until the end of the song, we'd probably be nowhere close to guessing where each partner would even be on the floor, let alone where their arms and legs would be. Like weather, there are simply too many variables -- too many things acting both independently and in concert with each other -- for us to accurately see ahead of time how it will all pan out.
Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a
Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F
Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F
Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F
Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal