We are starting a polar vortex split now and it takes 2-3 weeks for this to translate to the surface here. The NAO/AO is just one teleconnection in a bunch as there are others. The GFS and ECMWF are predicting a negative AO/NAO to set up, but it doesnít always mean the worst here. The worst sector of the split seems to be going to go to Eurasia and a weaker segment seems to be forecasted here. Assuming we survive this with no worse than what we typically get in the East, it will be a mild winter and my forecast will be incorrect based on what I posted weeks ago. This will be the second year in a row of this where teleconnections and analog based forecasting has not served me well (or other forecasters either). Most services predicted similar to me. But meteorological scenarios are projected based on odds. Itís like in baseball, sometimes the pitcher gets a basehit! It just happens. But Iím starting to think that the teleconnection forecasting is losing steam as a reliable tool. I feel like changing Arctic Sea Ice anomalies may be why. I think in the future, month to month might be better. Many like to say that itís impossible to predict beyond a few days. But general trends can be predicted 2-4 weeks out with good accuracy. Specific details are hard to work out. Beyond that itís hard.
Iím short, the way itís looking now, we will see some cold weather within the next 2 weeks or so. How bad will end up defining winter. Bare in mind winter is really quite young still. Inaccurate forecasts are everywhere, but the science is what it is. Hereís more on the coming PV.