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Posted by David I'd keep BL because he's a close call this year and he's on the uptick...so the projections/stat lines you're probably looking at are conservative at best. The stat lines are also only a starting point that were cut in Nov/Dec. They don't take into effect offseason workout regimens, developments of new pitches, new offenses, bullpens, new parks, and, in the case of BL for example, Hoffman being back. And don't forget trusting your gut now and then. It's your team, but even without knowing type of league you're in, I tend to doubt you'll find much better off the wire at this moment in time. My thought is you've probably got a lot of high risk, high reward types on your wire. And why take that chance now when you can let BL have a good April or May, elevate his trade value, and if you're still down on him then, trade him for a more speculative stock type of player? --Previous Message--
on 3/3/2004, 7:30 am, in reply to "Re: Free Agent Pitcher Picking"
I use those merely as guidelines, if anyone fit them all on the wire, I'd bet you're walking away with the league due to owner snoozing. No one fits all of them, but many players come close.
: I have some general rules of thumb I use, but
: I'd reconsider dropping BL. Comeback year
: candidate, is efficient, gets deep into
: games, significantly improved offense,
: they've got Hoffman back. Lawrence could
: return this year to better numbers overall,
: like 14-15 wins. Also, depending upon the
: size of the league you're in, I'd seriously
: doubt you'd find much better than him on the
: wire.
: That being said, my general rules of thumb to
: pick up a pitcher are Ctl under 3, Dom over 6
: and Cmd 2.5 and up. Those guys have the most
: likelihood not only to survive and keep jobs,
: but are less inclined to get torched in one
: outing and kill my era and whip. I also look
: at the bullpen behind them, their injury
: history, and the offense supporting them. If
: you really want to get crazy, look at the
: offenses in that pitcher's division as well.
: Finally, I also look at their quality start
: trends. I use the PQS section of the
: Shandler book in the offseason and track
: Quality starts, generally 6 innings plus, 3
: earned or less per start during the regular
: season. For rookies, I don't touch anyone
: with a MLE BPV of 75 or better from last
: year, let someone else take that risk, give
: me a veteran Trachsel type any day.
: David
: --Previous Message--
: Hi,
: I'm trying to pick up a SP Free Agent. I'm
: droppiing Brian Lawrence. I'm using the
: method of Command Ratios to pick one up.
: However, all the avalible SP's have horrible
: Command Ratios. Is this normal or bad? Are
: their any other methods I can use? If so, can
: you include the formulas, please? Thank you.
: :
:
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