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Posted by Allen@HQ on 6/11/2003, 2:42 pm, in reply to "Re: Hirsch's Wed Analysis of Bagwell..." I haven't seen Bagwell play lately, so I had no insight to whether the shoulder was bothering him at all - nor have I seen anything written about the shoulder, other than it was repaired (and his hot start in my mind made the injury mostly a moot point). His age is a fact - it's also typical, without a specific injury, for these declines to occur in all players that get to this stage of their career. I guess I still don't see the benefit of trying to distinguish between age and injury in this specific case because: It's a judgement call I made that may not have a right or wrong to it - to me, it's too speculative to pin May/June's dismal performance on the shoulder, when April was stellar. --Previous Message--
Not agitated at all - merely trying to respond to your inquiry and concerns.
1) I've seen no mention of the shoulder still bothering him, other than the anecdotal evidence here that he made a very weak throw recently
2) the shoulder has supposedly been repaired, so it may now be a permanent factor - kind of like age - in Bagwell's BPI outlook
3) If it wasn't "fixed" before, can it be fixed? - (This is a Dr. HQ issue, not a Market Watch issue.)
4) Bagwell's SLG trend indicates the shoulder didn't kill him before - why now all of a sudden?
: You seem agitated in your reply. Hopefully not
: but if that's the case, I didn't intend
: for any part of my message to read as
: though I were "calling" you on
: your analysis; just wanted to discuss it
: in more detail, look at other things.
:
: Why do I need to distinguish between them?
: The
: fact is, the older a player is, usually
: the more injury-prone, or at least they
: heal/recover more slowly from injury and
: even the inevitable wear-and-tear, so I
: see injury and age as going hand-in-hand,
: to a large degree.
: True. I guess I'm asking how reliably you
: think Bagwell's three year trend can be
: pinned on his age alone. His numbers
: dropped from 01 to 02 and again to 02 to
: 03, but both of the last two years are
: post injury.
:
: I could have mentioned the shoulder problem,
: although that's somewhat ancient history.
: Would be useful to able to access deep
: archives of DrHQ that focused on Bagwell's
: injury when it was a current event.
: And, trying to understand and learn how you
: approach choosing what to write and not
: write in a situation like this (so I have
: additional insight).....
: If it's potentially (and visibly) affecting
: his performance now, is it ancient
: history? And, how is attributing the
: decline to a previous injury anymore
: speculative than attributing it to his
: age?
:
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