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Posted by Neil@HQ Actually, reading your post a little more closely, I see that you calculated xH% of 29.95% and 29.84% for the NL and AL. That's good news as using the HQ Excel spreadsheets of pitching performances I find that H% are at 30%. So rounding your numbers is exactly where it should be. Also, did you use (IP x 2.82) in the H% formula? If you use McCracken's formula instead of the HQ formula you will probably get slightly different results as HQ uses (IP x 2.82) and McCracken uses total batters faced.
on 5/27/2003, 1:37 am, in reply to "I plugged numbers into your equation from last year and..."
Thanks David, I appreciate the work. For my selected pitchers that I used to build the model, I chose pitchers with 100 IP or more (or there abouts) in 2001 and 2002. So I wonder if that may explain the difference that you experienced? I was looking at pitchers that would likely be on fantasy rosters and with 100 IP you minimized any wacky results over a limited sample size.
--Previous Message--
: it appears that it tends to overestimate H%, assuming I did
: everything correctly, which is a big assumption. I did
: it for the leagues as a whole.
: I went to a great site, www.baseball-reference.com, to get
: last year's league totals. It doesn't have slugging
: percentage allowed as a stat, but it does have the
: league's SLG for hitters, which would be very close to
: the slugging percentage allowed. Interleague games would
: alter this somewhat, but I wouldn't think significantly,
: and it should balance-out by doing each league (if one
: league's SLG is overestimated due to an imbalance in the
: hitting in interleague games, the other league's SLG
: would be correspondingly underestimated).
: I obtained the following data to use in the NL:
: SLG -- .410
: HR9 -- 1.014
: K/9 -- 6.768
: Based on the innings pitched by the league, SOs for the
: league, hits allowed for the league, and HRs allowed for
: the league I obtained a H% of 27.8788. Using your
: formula, I obtained an xH% of 29.954.
: For the AL:
: SLG -- .424
: HR9 -- 1.097
: K/9 -- 6.258
: Again, based on the data for the AL's pitchers as a whole, I
: obtained a H% of 28.09697. Using the formula, I obtained
: an xH% of 29.8383.
: I'm not sure what that means, but there it is. Any other
: season can be utilized, as the data from all previous
: seasons can be found on that site.
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