Posted by NEWS on 28/10/2004, 16:04:46 On Tuesday, the president said that he would be "disappointed" if free and fair elections in Iraq led to the seating of an Islamic government, but the United States will accept the will of the Iraqi people. If that's what the people choose, that's what the people choose, he said. The IRI poll also showed that the US-backed government of interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is losing serious ground. More than 45 per cent of Iraqis said their country is heading in the wrong direction, and 41 per cent said it is moving in the right direction. Despite President Bush's declaration that he would accept the results of the Iraqi election, US officials view a victory for religious parties as the worst-case scenario. They hope that the Iraqi people will choose Mr Allawi and his team instead of religious politicians. The IRI poll, based on 2,000 face-to-face interviews conducted among all ethnic and religious groups in Iraq between Sept 24 and Oct 4, shows the support for the Allawi government has plummeted to about 43 per cent, down from 62 in a late-summer poll. One out of three Iraqis blames the US-led multinational force for the country's security problems, slightly more than the 32 per cent who blame foreign terrorists, the poll shows. Only eight percent blame members of the Saddam government. In positive news for the Bush administration's plan for restoring democracy to Iraq, the poll found that 85 per cent of the people want to vote in the January election. Despite the current strife, about two-thirds of Iraqis do not believe civil war is imminent, the poll found. Asked if their households had been hurt by violence, injuries, death or monetary loss over the past year, only 22 percent of those questioned said "yes" _ a finding that surprised pollsters and US officials. With voter registration due to begin on Nov 1, the poll found that 64 Per cent of Iraqis are still unwilling to align with any party. The most valuable indicators, officials say, may be the data on politicians. The poll found the most popular politician is Abdel Aziz Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. The group was part of the US-backed opposition to Saddam Hussein and is now also backed by Iran. Mr Hakim had 80 per cent name-recognition among Iraqis, with more than 51 per cent wanting to see him in the national assembly, which will pick a new government. Mr Allawi had the greatest name-recognition of any politician, but only 47 per cent of Iraqis said they would support him for a seat in the new parliament. Anti-US Shia leader Moqtada Sadr came in a very close third, with 46 per cent backing him for an assembly seat. Ahmed Chalabi, once favoured in Washington as a possible successor to Saddam Hussein, had wide national recognition, but only 15 per cent said they would vote for him and more than half said they would vote against him. Ibrahim Jafari, the Dawa Party chief and current vice president, was not included in the IRI poll. He had the highest popularity rating in previous polls. That may still be the case, since almost 18 per cent of Iraqis surveyed by IRI said they were most likely to vote for Dawa candidates - the largest backing among the top 11 parties listed. Dawa is another former US-backed group now enjoying Iran's support. US officials and Iraqi analysts believe candidates aligned with the Supreme Council and with Dawa are likely to capture the highest percentage of votes, giving religious parties an edge in forming a new government. Iraqi President Ghazi Yawar, a Sunni leader of the country's largest tribe, was also omitted from the poll. The IRI, founded in 1983, is a private, non-profit organization that has worked in more than 60 countries. It receives grants from the US government and has been in charge of public opinion polls in advance of the election.
Religious parties likely to win Iraq election: US survey
Iraq s religious parties are most likely to win and form an Islamic government if elections were held today, says a survey financed by the International Republican Institute , a think tank backed by President Bush's Republican Party.
Source: Dawn
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