Posted by NEWS on 31/7/2004, 16:49:27 By SANKAR SEN The sharp rise in violent terrorist attacks on foreigners climaxed by the decapitation of American engineer Johnson marks a sinister phase in the upsurge of terrorism in the Saudi kingdom. US secretary of state Collin Powell has warned of a dangerous situation and said that the killing of foreigners was a direct attack on the Saudi regime. This is the first time the Bush administration has acknowledged publicly a dramatic upsurge in terrorist violence threatening the very survival of the Saudi regime. BBC Cameraman Direct election Expatriates
TERRORISM IN SAUDI ARABIA : Serious Repercussions On World Economy
The author is a former Director, National Police Academy
On 29 May, the terrorists attacked a building in Saudi Arabias seaside resort Khobar and butchered foreign workers who even vaguely looked western. The official toll at Khobar was 22 killed and 25 injured and most of them were blue-collar non-Muslim Asian workers. A group calling itself Quaida Organisation in the Arabian Peninsula claimed responsibility. One of the attackers, perhaps their ringleader, was captured by the Saudi police and three others were allowed to escape in return for lives of a further 40 hostages.
The terrorists followed up the Khobar attack by killing the BBC cameraman Simon Chambers who was filming a report on fear among the expatriates after the Khobar incident. They also critically injured his colleague Frank Gardener. Al-Quida terrorists again killed one American engineer and kidnapped another. The Al-Qaida issued a statement that it reserved the right to deal with the Americans in the same way to avenge what the Americans did to our brothers in Abu Gharib prison and Guantanamo.
It seems that Saudi kingdom is unable to halt the wave of violence. During 2003-04 there were 20 violent terrorist incidents in different parts of Saudi Arabia and this brings into focus the question of stability of the present regime in Saudi Arabia, which contains a quarter of worlds known oil reserve.
Terrorism in Saudi Arabia not only targets westerners who are viewed as the enemy of Islam but also aims at overthrow of the Saudi royal family who are looked upon as stooges of western imperialism. The terrorists enjoy a large measure of public support. Many impoverished Saudi young men are imbued with a spirit of revenge against infidels for atrocities perpetrated against the Muslims and the ruling establishment for its profligacy and unaccountability. Among many Saudis, bin Laden is becoming a popular romantic folk-hero. His message of xenophobic fundamentalism resonates well with the growing number of have-nots in Saudi Arabia who detest lack of accountability of many of the 7,000-odd Saudi princes. Though Saudi officials claim that the militants have no support, a recent government poll showed 49 per cent of the respondents support Osama bin Ladens ideas.
The terrorist attacks have generated fear and panic among 8.8 million expatriates who constitute the backbone of the kingdoms workforce. Some experts are leaving, despite good pay and perks. Many western firms in Saudi Arabia are taking security in their own hands. Private security firms have reported a sharp increase in the demand for armed guards. The BBC joined the media groups that hire armed guards to protect their correspondents in troubled areas. Many expatriates are of the view that authorities are not doing enough for their protection.
The domestic scenario in Saudi Arabia is also not encouraging. King Fahd remains an invalid. The de facto ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah is trying not with great success to introduce reforms. He has ordered direct election for the local council and also given more influence to Mazlis-i-Sura, the closest thing Saudi Arabia has to a Parliament. But his reformist efforts are offset by the growing influence of the interior minister, Prince Nayef who is in favour of the status quo and wants to revive the harsh old regime. But for winning the battle against terror it is necessary to reform the outmoded institutions of the country and involve the people in decision-making processes.
Upheavals in Saudi Arabia will have serious and unforeseen repercussions on the world economy and may cause oil shocks. Today one quarter of worlds oil reserves lie in Saudi Arabia. Saudis not only export oil more than anyone else but also have oil reserves more than anyone else. But far more important is Saudi Arabias role as a swing producer. Unlike other oil producing countries Saudis keep several billion barrels per day of idle capacity on hand to meet emergencies. Saudi Arabia is the only OPEC country with considerable spare capacity available and this buffer capacity enables Saudi Arabia to moderate oil prices.
This they had done earlier during Iran-Iraq war when supplies from both the countries were disrupted and also during the First Gulf War. During the present oil crisis also, Saudi Arabia moved unilaterally when some of the OPEC ministers rebuffed the Saudi proposal to raise their output quota. However, Saudi Arabia no longer remains a very safe source of oil because its oil installations and pipelines are targeted by terrorists. The Saudi Arabian government has taken a number of preventive measures to fortify its oil installations and pipelines. They have made arrangements for high technology surveillance and aircraft patrolling for their important oil installations and facilities. But well-known security experts like James Woolsey (a former head of CIA) is of the view that a well coordinated attack by terrorists, some of whom may have infiltrated into the Saudi oil infrastructure, may cripple the system and substantially reduce the flow of oil. This will create a terrible oil shock with unforeseen consequences.
The recent spate of shooting of foreigners follows threats held out by Al-Qaeda to cleanse Arabian peninsula of infidels. It seems for the present there is a change of tactics of the terrorists. Instead of Saudi oil installations, Al-Qaeda is targeting foreigners particularly westerners. This change in Al-Qaeda tactics is due to various reasons. First, the expatriates are far more vulnerable. The oil field refinery and ports that comprise the Saudi energy industry are heavily guarded, while the compound where the expatriates live are not. Second, an attack on oil installations will provoke far stronger reactions from the authorities and the population.
A major attack would result in a state of emergency making movements of terrorists far more difficult. Third, attacking expatriates appear to be broadly popular with the Saudi population. There is little love lost between the expatriates and the government, which has never made great efforts to integrate the expatriates or to make them feel secure. Fourth, Al-Qaeda also intends to keep the Saudi oil infrastructure in place. Osama bin Laden has referred to Saudi oil as a birthright of all Muslims and an instrument for resurrection of Islamic Caliphate.
After the beheading of the American hostage Paul Johnson, Saudi security forces have shot dead the Al-Qaeda leader Abulahaziz-Al-Muqrin and three of his associates. Though Al-Qaeda has confirmed the killing of Al-Muqrin, it has voiced defiance. The terrorists feel that time is on their side and an increasingly unstable Saudi Arabia will remain fertile ground for recruitment of volunteers, collection of arms and preparation of full-scale uprising.
There is also fear among Saudi liberals that increase of jihadi violence will further strengthen the conservative forces in the country and the royal princes will block any further reform. Stifling conservatism will ultimately strengthen the hands of the terrorists.
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