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All of this seems to support your theories on trunk growth and flowering.
My winters are harder than yours. My Trachy just barely hangs on. It most often limps out of winter. This year, everything got fried on it except the spear and the youngest frond. And that's kind of typical. Winter low of 4F.
I love that my palm is a survivor, a real trooper in a true 7a location. But, when it comes at the cost of defoliation most springs, it hardly seems worth it.
Jim, Wilmington, DE, 7a
Last 30 Years Avg. Winter Low: 7.50F
Last 20 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.35F
Last 10 Years Avg. Winter Low: 8.40F
Favorite Palms: Species: Phoenix Canariensis / Genus: Sabal
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