Edited by Sam TN on 11/1/2017, 12:55 pm
Unfortunately, my fear for the timing of a negative AO is likely late December or early January. I see no indications of any strongly cold air mass for the next 6 weeks. The polar vortex is strong and my hope was that it would be weaker in November/December. This is not so.
Given that sea ice is running below normal, this favors more Siberian snow cover in the coming weeks, and portends to a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter.
I think by the averages, things are going to be ok. One thing Iíve found for here at least is that Knoxville has never seen below a 7b winter in La NiŮa driven winters. I think similar results could be found in other SE locations. In your area, I do think it could be tougher sledding so your prediction sounds pretty close to my idea as well for there.
I donít think we are looking at 2014ís version of winter, but I will conclude by saying my confidence in this forecast isnít as strong as usual due to conflicts with the teleconnective indices I look at.